Brief analysis of the development situation of dom

2022-08-24
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A brief analysis of the development situation of the automobile industry at home and abroad in 2016

the global economy has entered the new normal, which has a great impact on the world automobile manufacturing industry, and the automobile industry is gradually adapting to the new normal. Looking at the development trend of the global automobile industry, new changes are emerging:

1. The production and sales of automobiles continue to grow. In recent years, although the new normal of the international economy has had a great impact on the global automobile manufacturing industry, it has little impact on the production and sales of automobiles. In 2015, the global production and sales of light vehicles were 82.9 million, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The total sales volume of light vehicles in the United States was 17.47 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. The sales volume of passenger vehicles in Europe was 14.202 million, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. The sales volume of passenger vehicles in China was 19.95 million, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. In the first half of 2016, the sales volume of passenger cars in the United States was 8.645 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, the sales volume of passenger cars in Europe was 8.09 million, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and the sales volume of passenger cars in China was 11.042 million, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. These figures fully show that the global automobile production and sales have been maintaining the growth trend and will continue to grow in the future

2. The center of gravity of the global auto market has shifted eastward and slowed down. With the change of the global macroeconomic environment, affected by the general slowdown in the growth of emerging market economies, the rebalancing of the economy, the volatility of oil prices, the volatility of market sentiment and other factors, the shift of the focus of the global automotive industry to the East began to slow down. In the first half of 2016, the production and sales volume of the BRICs countries represented by China, Brazil, Russia and India generally decreased except China. In the first half of 2016, the sales volume of new cars in Brazil was 984000, a year-on-year decrease of 25.4%, the sales volume in Russia was 672000, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%, and the sales volume in India was 1377000, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%

3. New energy vehicles are developing rapidly. With the increasingly prominent energy and environmental issues, the development of new energy vehicles has attracted increasing attention. At present, new energy vehicles have become a bright spot in the automotive market. Internationally, Ford Motor, Hyundai Motor and Mitsubishi Motor have all planned to invest in the development of new energy vehicles. Domestic BYD, Zhongtai group, BAIC new energy, Chery Automobile and SAIC Roewe have made good achievements in R & D and sales. According to the statistics of the International Energy Agency (IEA), at the end of 2015, the global ownership of electric vehicles was 1million, which can be called "an important milestone"

4. The pace of technological upgrading of auto parts has accelerated. In recent years, the market position of auto parts industry in the auto industry system has been gradually improved. At the same time, international auto parts suppliers are moving towards an independent and large-scale development path. After long-term development, the auto parts industry has gradually shown the characteristics of organization collectivization, high-tech, supply systematization and business globalization, and a number of large auto parts groups with annual sales revenue of more than 10 billion US dollars have emerged

while seeing positive changes, there are still some adverse factors in the global automotive industry:

1. The growth rate of automobile production and sales is gradually slowing down. At present, although the production and sales of global cars are still increasing, and the production and sales of major global auto markets such as the United States, Germany and Europe in 2015 have increased compared with 2014, and China has also created a record high production and sales volume in the world, the sharp decline in South America and Russia has restricted the growth brought about by China's record production and sales volume and the sharp rebound in EU market sales volume. In 2015, the cumulative sales volume of new light vehicles in Russia was 1.6012 million, down 35.7% from 2.4914 million in 2014. In 2015, Brazil, once a large-scale and potential market in the world, suffered from the economic downturn, and the sales volume of light vehicles was 2.4769 million, a year-on-year decrease of 25.6%. Through the analysis of automobile production and sales in 2015, it can be seen that the growth rate of automobile production and sales in 2015 is slightly higher than that in the past, and the growth rate of sales in 2015 is the slowest year since 2009

2. The competition in the global automobile industry is more intense. At present, the competition in the global auto industry is becoming more intense and complex, which is mainly affected by the following three aspects: first, with the expansion of global auto production capacity, in order to reduce inventory pressure and financial pressure, auto manufacturers generally reduce car profits and accelerate price competition; Second, due to the faster and faster development of science and technology, the cycle of automobile upgrading has become significantly shorter, and the competition in the automobile industry has become the competition of the whole industrial chain from R & D, manufacturing to sales; Third, the integration trend of the automotive industry continues to advance, and automotive enterprises strengthen their competitiveness through mergers, acquisitions and mergers

3. The aging population reduces the demand of the automobile market. With the gradual decline of the birth rate, the trend of world population growth has shown an overall slowdown. From the perspective of world population development, the region with relatively rapid population growth is Africa, which is relatively backward, while the developed countries have a higher degree of population aging. As the buyers in the automobile market are mainly young and middle-aged people, and consumers need to have a better income level as a support, the aging trend of the population in developed countries and even developing countries has restricted the sales of composite polyurethane adhesive as a high-end product in the industry, and the automobile market will also accept this challenge

the situation of domestic automobile industry

in recent years, China's automobile industry has struggled in difficulties and developed in adversity, and the production and sales of automobiles have reached new highs. A comprehensive analysis of the development of the domestic automobile industry in recent years shows the following development trends:

1. China's automobile industry is still in the golden period of development. In 2015, China's auto production and sales exceeded 24.5 million, a record high in the world and ranked first in the world for seven consecutive years. In 2016, the production and sales of automobiles were 19.422 million and 19.36 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 14.1% and 12.9%. It is estimated that the Chinese market is expected to continue to maintain a steady growth trend. Stimulated by the consumption of halving the purchase tax, the car market will maintain a 10% growth rate in 2016, and the total sales volume is expected to reach 27million in 2016. On the whole, China's automobile production and sales have increased steadily

therefore, its performance and aesthetics often have very harsh requirements

2. Automobile socialization is basically mature. With the sustained and rapid development of China's economy and society, there is a strong demand for people to buy cars, and the car ownership continues to show a rapid growth trend. In 2015, the number of newly registered cars reached 23.85 million, with a net increase of 17.81 million, which is the highest level in history. Compared with 2013, the number of urban car ownership in China has increased from 31 to 40 cities, and the number of car ownership of more than 2million has increased from 8 in 2013 to 11 cities. The proportion of cars in motor vehicles has increased rapidly. In recent five years, the proportion of cars in motor vehicles has increased from 47.06% to 61.82%. The structure of transportation has changed fundamentally. Cars have become the main body of motor vehicles, and the socialization of cars in China is basically mature

3. The growth space of the automobile market is still large. In terms of the current overall environment, China is still in the stage of synchronous and accelerated development of industrialization and urbanization. The gross domestic product and resident income continue to grow. The state has also successively issued a number of policies conducive to expanding domestic demand. In addition, the demand for cars in the second and third tier cities and rural markets has increased, and the average number of cars per thousand people in China is far from the world average. In the next few years, China will still be in the development stage of simultaneous acceleration of industrialization and urbanization. It is expected that China's automobile consumption market will further expand with great potential

4. New energy vehicles are in a period of vigorous growth. Supported by domestic policies such as the notice on incentive policies for charging facilities of new energy vehicles and strengthening the promotion and application of new energy vehicles during the 13th five year plan, detailed rules on subsidies for the construction of charging infrastructure of electric vehicles, and technical policies for the recycling of electric vehicle power batteries, the sales in the Chinese market have increased significantly. As of July 2016, China's electric vehicle sales company Hexion has adopted its bakelite project to increase thermosetting resin sales by 162% to 170000 vehicles, including 134000 pure electric vehicles and 36000 hybrid electric vehicles. At present, China has surpassed the United States to become the world's largest new energy vehicle market

despite the rapid development of China's automobile industry, there are still some problems that need to be paid great attention to:

1. The profit margin of the automobile industry has declined. According to the quick report of major economic indicators of key enterprises (groups) in the automotive industry from January to November 2015, the major economic indicators of key enterprises (groups) are still lower than the same period of last year, and the profits of some listed auto enterprises are still declining sharply, even falling into the dilemma of substantial losses. The continuous growth of automobile production and sales, while the profit margin of the automobile industry is declining, is the situation caused by the price war between automobile enterprises to increase competitiveness and destock. In the first three quarters of this year, the total sales volume of FAW Volkswagen sales company, a key enterprise in our district, increased, but the tax revenue fell sharply, reducing 1.8 billion yuan from the first three quarters of last year

2. The comprehensive competitiveness of independent brands is not strong. At present, there is still a big gap between domestic independent brand products and joint venture brand products. China's own brand cars are scattered, disordered, low-grade, rely on low-cost competition and low-cost expansion, and do not pay attention to brand training and product quality improvement, so it is difficult to get involved in the high-end market. The most important problem is that there is a big gap between independent brand products and joint venture brands in terms of product research and development and technical reserves. At present, the domestic self owned brand industry mainly adopts the method of introduction digestion absorption re innovation, which makes it difficult to make a greater breakthrough in product technology. Compared with joint venture brands, the system capacity of self owned brands still has great room for improvement

3. The ability of industrial technology innovation is not strong. At present, although there are many joint venture vehicle platforms in China, most of the core technologies and key links are still subject to multinational enterprises. Domestic technology is still in the imitation stage, and it can't well break the framework to develop independent technology. Affected by factors such as the lack of a perfect domestic independent development scientific and technological innovation system, insufficient investment in R & D funds, shortage of R & D talents, and lack of practical experience in independent development, China's automotive industry's technological innovation ability is not strong, and the enterprise's technological R & D ability and innovation ability still need to be further improved and breakthrough

4. The development of parts enterprises lags behind. The auto parts industry is the foundation of the development of the auto industry and the prerequisite to support the sustainable and steady development of the auto industry. At present, the development of domestic parts enterprises lags behind, and lags behind the development of vehicle enterprises. Domestic parts enterprises have scattered, weak and other problems. There are few mature auto parts enterprises, and there is a big gap with multinational parts enterprises

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