The most popular two giants failed to raise the wh

2022-08-06
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The two giants failed to raise the wholesale price of diesel by more than 100 yuan

with the change rate of crude oil in the three places turning upward, the expectation of lowering the domestic gasoline and diesel prices in early September has failed. According to the report and statistics of the product oil market monitoring agency on September 13, the wholesale price of diesel oil of PetroChina and Sinopec increased significantly in the first week of September, with an average increase of between 100 yuan and 150 yuan/ton

driven by the rise in crude oil and the expected rebound in diesel demand in September, some traders began to replenish. In this regard, analysts believe that although there is speculation and excessive replenishment demand in the diesel market, it is unlikely that another diesel shortage will occur

the wholesale price of diesel oil increased by more than 100 yuan per ton

according to the latest monitoring of Zhuo Chuang information, in the first week of September, the prices of domestic main gasoline and diesel oil increased by different ranges, among which diesel oil increased by a large margin, with an average increase of 100 yuan, aiming at the trend of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform ~150 yuan/ton

Li Qian, an analyst of the agency, believes that August and September are the peak maintenance periods for the two main refineries of PetroChina and Sinopec. Since September, the shortage of diesel resources and the weakening of the NDRC's expectation of lowering oil prices are one of the reasons for the slight rise in gasoline and diesel prices

recently, the international oil price has shown a trend of continuous fluctuation and rising, which has increased the proportion of high price in the 22 day moving average price of crude oil in the three places. The change rate of crude oil in the three places has continued to rise. As of September 12, the change rate of crude oil in the three places has risen to -1.66%

huhuichun, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang information, predicts that if the international oil price keeps fluctuating and rising recently, the change rate of the three places may turn positive in the middle and late September; Even if the international oil price continues to fluctuate and decline in the near future (the decline is within $5/barrel), the change rate of the three places will be difficult to fall to -4% this month. Therefore, it is difficult to open the window of reduction, and the expectation of reducing domestic gasoline and diesel prices in September may fail

international crude oil rebounded, and domestic product oil prices (to solve the oil price dilemma) stopped falling and showed signs of rising. An analyst from CNPC economic and Technological Research Institute said that due to the low operating load of domestic refineries, low inventory of petrochemical companies and insufficient market supply allocation in September, some main business units in North China and East China began to push prices moderately in September, and diesel oil pushed up significantly

according to the survey of Xiwang energy, as of September 8, the operating rate of 35 main refineries continued to fall by 0.51 percentage points compared with two weeks ago, to 79.66%, which is still the second lowest level this year. It fell by 8.3 percentage points compared with the historical peak in late May this year, and also fell by 5.7% year-on-year

since June, the enthusiasm of domestic refineries to start operation has been low. In addition, due to the centralized maintenance and frequent accidents, the storage of finished oil is still reduced. As of the end of July, the inventory of finished oil depot fell by 5.47% on the morning of December 18. Gasoline fell 5% month on month, and diesel fell 5.4% month on month

huhuichun said that this month, the diesel oil allocation plan of petrochemical companies was significantly reduced, and even diesel oil in some regions showed tension. In contrast, the willingness to push prices was high, boosted by the rise of crude oil. The wholesale price of most domestic main diesel oil has risen above the wholesale price limit, but there is still a distance from the retail price limit

speculative demand for diesel may break out again

"most traders have no hope for the recent price adjustment. After the price adjustment hopes have failed, the market is more confused, but some traders have begun to replenish." An analyst from CNPC Research Institute of economics and technology said that there is no hope of price adjustment in the short term, the domestic market mentality is no longer just wait-and-see, and traders' operations tend to be normal. Although there is no speculative purchase at present, the normal seasonal demand recovery can also drive the diesel fundamentals to strengthen

hanjingyuan, a market analyst at Jinyin Island, said: "after the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the overall bullish mentality is still continuing. In the later stage, the demand for diesel terminals will gradually rise. In addition, the National Day holiday is approaching, and it is difficult to dissipate the enthusiasm for replenishment."

"similar to the same period last year, the international oil price has shown signs of sudden rise again recently, and the sudden outbreak of speculative demand may repeat itself." Hanjingyuan believes that it is not surprising that there is a diesel supply gap in some regions during the peak diesel demand season in September

due to the reduction of diesel import tariff in the early stage and the rebound of refinery operating rate of the two companies at the end of September, it is expected that the weight will be reduced again - the proportion of substitute metal plastics is mostly below 1.7, and there is little possibility of diesel shortage. The domestic gasoline supply and demand is not expected to fluctuate much, and the market atmosphere may be boosted by the rising diesel market

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